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Fooled by Randomness
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets | Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Talebs landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we dont understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. [Taleb is] Wall Streets principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luthers ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church. Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skillthe world of businessFooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives. From the Trade Paperback edition.
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GoneFishing

Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.

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GoneFishing

I am convinced that we are not made for clear-cut, well-delineates schedules. We are made to live like firemen, with downtime for lounging and meditating between calls, under the protection of protective uncertainty. Regrettably, some people might be Involuntarily turned into optimizers, like a suburban child having his weekend minutes separated between karate, guitar lessons, and religious education.

Laalaleighh I had a schedule, made by my parents broken down into 5 minute increments from the age of five. I feel this in my soul 🙌🏼 8y
Gina Ahhhh schedules, I am more of a free floater in life and I cringe when I need to give a time. It drives my family mad. 8y
Gina @Laalaleighh I know exactly what you mean. When my kids were young all the parents around me were doing that. I refused as it cut into my daydreaming time and I didn't want to be a taxi driver. My kids are growing up to be wonderful men so I guess my laxidasical throwback 70s parenting suited them just fine. 8y
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Laalaleighh @gina props to you for not overwhelming your kids with micromanagement. I wish my parents would have taken a page out of your book! 8y
Gina @Laalaleighh gee thanks. But I am sure there is something I did which will cause a few therapy sessions for them hehehe ;) 8y
Laalaleighh @gina if you don't cause your kids at least a few therapy sessions, where you ever even really a parent? My bf has perfect parents and even he has parent issues now and then. (edited) 8y
Gina @Laalaleighh hahahaha yes truly 8y
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GoneFishing

The higher up the corporate ladder, the higher the compensation to the individual. This might be justified, as it makes plenty of sense to pay individuals according to their contribution. However, and in general...the higher up the corporate ladder, the lower the evidence of such contribution.

night_shift 👏 truth! 8y
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GoneFishing

Consider the difference of judging on process and judging on results. Lower ranking persons in the enterprise and judged on process and results--in fact, owing to the repetitive efforts of their process converges rapidly to results. But top management is only paid on results, no matter what the process. There seems to be no such thing as a foolish decision if it results in profits. Money talks, we are often told. The rest is...philosophy.